The Metropolitan Region Scheme (MRS) Amendment 1280/41 Mangles Bay Marina (MBM) report states that the purpose of the amendment is to facilitate the proposed MBM development, the centerpiece of which is a large marina. This is how the development is being sold to the public.
Close scrutiny of the economics however, suggests that it is highly unlikely that the marina will ever be built.
This claim is based on the following pertinent facts
Cost:
- It cost $440 million to build Elizabeth Quay (EQ), which is a directly comparable project – i.e. an excavated inland water body for boat access and surrounding development.
- The so-called Mangles Bay Marina (MBM) would cost a lot more to build than EQ because, among other reasons:
- The MBM excavation is over 5 times as big – 800,000 cubic metres as against 150,000 cubic metres
- EQ was built using dry excavation method, which is much cheaper than the wet excavation method (dredging) required for the MBM
Revenue:
- The Government has made it clear it will not fund the marina development, and that it has to be self-funding.
- The sale of housing lots may make a profit for Cedar Woods and LandCorp, but nowhere near enough to build the marina, the canals and the entire surrounding infrastructure.
Ever since Hands Off Point Peron (HOPP) challenged the business case for the marina and exposed the proponent’s ulterior motive of getting hold of the land for housing with no legal obligation to build the marina, the proponent has been scrambling to make changes to the MBM proposal in an effort to try and portray it as viable – for example dramatically increasing the number of proposed housing lots (from 363 to 565 and lately even more) as well as removing the coastal armouring originally proposed.
But even with these changes, the marina is not viable in the current and foreseeable economic climate. The business case for the marina is in tatters.
Even if the proponent managed to eventually sell all the lots created, the net revenue would be way less than what would be needed to build the marina, canals and all the associated infrastructure, let alone to cover the never ending remedial and maintenance costs caused by ongoing siltation, storm surges, rising sea levels, putrefaction due to inadequate flushing etc.
LandCorp and Cedar Woods must know these viability issues, yet they appear unwilling to disclose the true situation to the public because this would destroy their case for getting control of this prime public land.
There is a high likelihood that the land would be obtained on the promise of a marina, and then just used for housing. This would amount to a scam / false pretense.
Point Peron is a place of treasured memories of countless West Australians and as concerned citizens we must not sit back and allow this to happen.
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